- Line of strong to severe thunderstorms has moved across the area this morning
- Second round of thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and evening…but conditional on air mass recovering from morning activity
Complex of storms that developed over west Texas yesterday afternoon passed across the region early this morning with damaging winds in some areas. This activity has now moved into Louisiana and off the upper TX coast with lingering showers across the area. Local air mass has been stabilized by the morning activity and the ongoing clouds and light to moderate rainfall. Should see some clearing and end to the ongoing showers by mid to late morning and some sun into the early to mid afternoon hours. High resolution guidance varies on development of an additional round of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening over the northwest portions of SE TX and then move east and southeast toward the coast. Air mass will need to be able to heat and recover some although with the upper low and cold pool aloft nearby it may not take much to destabilize the air mass.
There will be a conditional threat for severe weather should storms form and organize late this afternoon and evening with all severe modes possible (damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado). Leaning more toward the hail threat this evening with storms given the cooling aloft. This forecast is fairly low confidence moving forward as to when or even if another round of storms will impact the area, but generally expecting a lesser degree of severe weather compared to this morning. SPC has maintained the slight (level 2 out of 5 risk) for today for all of the area, but explicitly mentions the low confidence on air mass recovery.
Progressive nature of the morning line of weather kept rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range for much of the area…much needed rainfall. Should another round impact the area this evening additional rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible. This rainfall will easily be handled and not expecting any significant flooding concern except the typical street variety in the usual poor drainage locations. Bayous and creeks are not expected to have any flooding concerns.
Rain and storm chances end tonight into early Sunday with clearing skies on Sunday.
Of note this morning is a fairly decent cold front to cross the area mid week with highs only in the 60’s/low 70’s mid to late week and lows in the 40’s and 50’s….a nice reprieve from the very warm October.
