Catastrophic hurricane event heading or the west coast of Florida.
Expected impacts and damage will rival some of the worst US hurricanes in recent times.
Discussion:
Milton went through an unbelievable period of intensification on Monday with the central pressure falling to 897mb only 2mb higher than hurricane Rita (2005) which holds the lowest pressure record in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Wilma (2005) holds the lowest pressure record of 882mb in the Atlantic basin. Maximum winds peaked at 180mph yesterday evening…since then, Milton has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle as noted by both USAF and NOAA aircraft. The small 3.8 mile eyewall of yesterday has collapsed and dissipated being replaced with a much larger eyewall nearly 20 miles across. This eyewall has been contracting overnight and this cycle has resulted in the hurricane weakening down to 155mph and a pressure of 924mb. However as this new eyewall continues to contract there will be a period today where Milton may once again intensify. The wind field has also begun to expand with hurricane force winds extending outward 30 miles and tropical storm force winds 105 miles.
Track:
There has been very little change in the track reasoning or with the guidance over the last 24 hours with Milton moving east and turning ENE and NE later today into Wednesday and accelerating toward the FL west coast. The multi-model consensus continues to show a landfall very near metro Tampa late Wednesday with Milton crossing FL and exiting the FL east coast Thursday. While there is still the potential for small track shift…it is becoming increasingly likely that the metro Tampa area will experience a catastrophic hurricane impact that has not occurred in a generation in this region. The last time Tampa was impacted by a hurricane of this magnitude was 1921 when the population was 300,000 versus 3.0 million today.
Intensity:
The intensity of Milton is being controlled by internal dynamics this morning (eyewall replacements) and this will continue today. The hurricane regional intensity models have done a good job in capturing the tremendous deepening yesterday and the eyewall cycle overnight and show another period of intensification today. Milton is passing over warm deep water and in a light shear environment with a favorable outflow channel to the north of the hurricane helping to vent the system. However, as Milton begins to approach the FL west coast on Wednesday, upper level westerly wind shear will significantly increase and this will likely result in some degree of weakening. While the wind speed is expected to drop, the interaction with the trough to the north will continue to broaden the wind field making Milton a larger hurricane with far reaching impacts. The expanding wind field will compensate for the weakening driving tremendous impacts into and across FL.
Impacts:
Storm Surge:
A catastrophic storm surge of 10-15 ft is likely from Tampa Bay southward to Sarasota and Englewood. Some of the most significant storm surge events in recent history have been weakening large hurricanes: Katrina, Rita, Opal. Devastation from storm surge will be complete in the coastal areas and barrier islands where all structures lower than 10-12 ft will be completely destroyed and washed away. Surge values in Tampa Bay are forecasted to rise to levels twice the previous record recorded just recently with Hurricane Helene. Surge values of 8-10 feet will be possible into the Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, and Fort Myers area which experienced catastrophic storm surge from Hurricane Ian (2022). All available resources should be utilized to evacuate coastal evacuation zones.
Winds:
Widespread damaging winds of 100+mph will impact much of the highly populated areas of WC FL and then inland along the I-4 corridor to Orlando and then along the NE and E FL coast. Given the broadening wind field wind and increasing forward speed…wind impacts will extend far inland with only modest weakening of the hurricane as it crosses the state. Widespread wind damage is likely along with significant and prolonged power disruption.
Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts of 8-12 inches will likely occur along and to the north of the track of Milton where the hurricane interacts with a stalled frontal boundary. Flash flooding will be possible generally along and north of the i-4 corridor.