- Short lived tropical depression/storm increasing likely later today/Sunday over the southern Gulf
- Plume of tropical moisture associated with this feature will bring increased rain chances Sunday and possibly Monday.
Early morning visible satellite images and surface observations in the southern Gulf indicate that the tropical wave moving across central America and the Yucatan yesterday is emerging into the extreme southern Gulf just off the northern coast of mainland Mexico sfcplot_91L_latest.png (833×612) . Data suggest a broad area of low level circulation is now present with the tropical wave axis and in recent hours a mass of thunderstorms has developed near the center of the likely circulation IR Satellite Loop for Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Tidbits . Given favorable warm water temperatures along with generally light upper level winds continued development of 91L is increasing likely as it moves west to west-northwest and inland on Sunday over the eastern coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center currently has odds of development at 50%, but based on data this morning this will likely need to be raise in the coming hours. A USAF mission is planned for this afternoon to determine if a tropical depression is forming and the overall structure of 91L.
Regardless of development a large plume of tropical moisture noted over much of the southern and central Gulf MIMIC-TPW2 (warmer colors are areas of higher moisture and cooler colors areas of lower moisture) will move west and northwest toward and into the Texas coast on Sunday resulting in significantly higher rain chances over much of the area, especially from I-10 southward to the coast. These higher rain chances may linger into Monday over portions of the region before a plume of drier air moves into the region. Given the tropical moisture in place on Sunday some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce very heavy rainfall which may result in short lived street flooding.
Seas will build into the 4-6 ft range on Sunday into Monday, but not currently expected any significant coastal impacts with seas or tides although both will be elevated some into early next week with enhanced rip currents.
