- Tropical depression #2 will move inland over eastern Mexico later today
- Increased rain chances today and Monday for the area
- Low end chance of tropical development late this week over the NE Gulf into the Atlantic
Tropical Depression #2:
A USAF mission investigating TD 2 this morning has found a poorly organized system with surface pressures in the 1008-1010mb range. Satellite images show a well defined tropical wave axis with a weak and disorganized surface low (TD2) at the far southwest end of the wave axis IR Satellite Loop for Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Tidbits . TD 2 has been moving a bit further south and west than expected and this has kept the circulation close to the coast of Mexico. Additionally, upper level westerly shear has been impacting the system and these factors have helped to prevent the system from intensifying much in the last 24 hours.
TD 2 will continue to the west-northwest and move inland along the eastern coast of Mexico later today or tonight and quickly dissipate over the high terrain. There is still a small window for the depression to strengthen into e tropical storm, but that window will close quickly today.
Moisture has already increased along the TX coast and is spreading inland MIMIC-TPW2 (warmer colors on the loop). This will help to increase rain chances today and Monday especially south of the I-10 corridor. Tides and seas will be elevated slightly through early this week, but not expecting tide levels to reach thresholds that would cause any coastal flooding.
Tropical Depression 2 forecast track
Forecast Rainfall through Wednesday July 2
NE Gulf/SE US Coast (Late week):
As mentioned a few days ago, a weak trough/old frontal boundary will be sagging into the NE Gulf across northern Florida and then off the Carolina coasts late this week. There are some hints in some of the global guidance and their respective ensemble members that a weak surface low may attempt to form somewhere in this zone late this week into next weekend. The National Hurricane Center has recently outlooked this area with a 20% (low) chance of development. This is a typically favored pattern this time of year for tropical systems to form but tends to be a slow process that could take several days. Any track and intensity considerations are highly uncertain given poor agreement on where any surface low may form if any.
At this time, this system does not look to have any impacts to SE TX late next week or next weekend.
