Rafael continues to quickly intensify while approaching Cuba
Discussion:
USAF mission shows the central pressure is falling around 1-2 mb per hour with Rafael now down to 964mb with winds of 100mph. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 14mph. An eye feature has been starting to show in IR images in the last few frames and Rafael may approach category 3 intensity before making landfall in Cuba later today.
Track:
Rafael is moving toward the northwest on the southwest side of high pressure to its northeast. This motion will continue over the next 1-2 days bringing Rafael into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. At that point, guidance continues to greatly struggle with the vertical depth of the system which will determine the ultimate outcome on track. Several guidance members have shifted toward the left (west) overnight, turning Rafael due west in the Gulf with even a south of west motion as high pressure builds north of the system. The current NHC forecast track is now north of the multi-model consensus and if the hard west track continues to be indicated southward adjustments in the track will be needed today.
With a cold front moving off the Texas coast on Saturday, Rafael will not be able to reach the Texas coast however the circulation may get close enough to increase wind and seas over the coastal waters and elevated tides.
The image below shows the consensus of the model guidance over the last several cycles with the dark blue line being the most current and the light blue being the oldest. As noted, the trend in the guidance consensus has been to the south and west over the last 24 hours.
Intensity:
Rafael is likely to peak close to if not a major hurricane later today before moving across Cuba and then entering the Gulf of Mexico where there could be some re-intensification. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico become increasing hostile late this week and weekend with a large mass of dry air shown over the western and central Gulf along with significant wind shear values over 30kts. It is likely Rafael will weaken significantly while encountering these factors and the official forecast brings the system down to a 40mph tropical storm by days 5 over the central Gulf of Mexico. NHC is near the higher side of the intensity envelop and Rafael could be weaker by day 5 than indicated.
