- Tropical wave over the Yucatan yesterday has moved over the southern Gulf
- Some slow development into a tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm is possible over the next 24-30 hours.
- Feature will move inland over NE MX or S TX late Friday.
- Increased rain chances Friday and possibly Saturday for southeast Texas.
Tropical wave axis that was located over the Yucatan yesterday has moved over the southern Gulf and there has been a recent increase in thunderstorm activity in association with this feature IR Satellite Loop for Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Tidbits . However, looking at surface observations and IR satellite images it is unclear if there is any sort of surface low although there appears to be some degree of mid level spin associated with this wave. The wave is moving toward the WNW/NW at 10-15mph. A USAF mission is planned to investigate this area later today depending on organizational trends this morning.
Conditions are generally favorable for some development of this wave as it moves toward the NW over the next 24-30 hours with very warm sea surface temperatures, generally light upper level winds, and good moisture values. The drawbacks are the current lack of any defined surface low and the short time this will spend over the Gulf waters. While the ECWMF ensembles continue to be aggressive in developing this system there is almost zero support from the Google AI guidance and only modest support from other guidance members. The most likely scenario is a weak surface low will form just prior to landfall along the western Gulf coast Friday and then push inland limiting any significant development. This is in agreement with the overnight run tropical model suite showing maximum intensities around 25-35kts.
Tropical model guidance
A plume of moisture associated with this system will also move northwest and into the TX coast on Friday and linger into Saturday. This will result in increased rain chances along much of the TX coast both Friday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts are not overly concerning and for most will be beneficial this time of year.
Forecasted Rainfall (Through Sunday AM)
