Devastating hurricane event likely for the NE Gulf coast
Hurricane Watch, tropical storm watch, and storm surge watch are issued for the western coast of FL, the FL Big Bend, and the FL panhandle.
Discussion:
USAF mission investigating the tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean Sea indicates that a well defined surface low has not yet formed and scattered convection remains disorganized. There is a fairly broad and weak circulation south of the Cayman Islands that appears to be moving toward the WNW or NW. Upper level shear is impacting this system due to an upper level low over the northern Yucatan.
Track:
The system will move toward the WNW or NW in the general direction of western Cuba, the NE Yucatan, and the Yucatan Channel over the next 24 hours before turning to the north on Wednesday as high pressure over the SE US backs to the east and a strong trough of low pressure approaches the mid south. This will open a path for the system to accelerate to the N and NNE on Thursday with a likely landfall in the FL Big Bend area Thursday night. There has been little shifting in the guidance over the last 48 hours with the multi-model consensus holding in this general area. It should be noted that due to the angle of approach to the FL coast only a slight shift in the track to the right would bring damaging conditions to the metro Tampa Bay area and this area is under a hurricane watch.
Multi-model consensus showing little spread in the guidance tracks over the last 3-4 runs.
Intensity:
The intensity trends continue to be concerning as nearly all guidance shows conditions extremely favorable for rapid development over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The developmental stages today will likely be key as to how strong this system becomes over the eastern Gulf. The sooner an inner core forms the more likely some of the higher end intensity guidance will be achieved. It should be noted that all the regional hurricane intensity models bring this system to the NE Gulf coast as a major hurricane and a favorable interaction with the trough over the mid south while passing over extremely warm Gulf waters encourages significant deepening of this system. Conditions are somewhat similar to Michael (2018) and Ian (2022) which both resulted in extreme high end hurricane impacts.
It should be noted that guidance suggests that this system will greatly expand in size over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a large wind field which will result in far reaching impacts. Additionally, the acceleration of the hurricane through landfall will bring damaging winds far inland over southern GA…possibly as far north as metro Atlanta.
Impacts:
Devastating life threatening storm surge of 10-15 ft above normally dry ground is becoming likely in the FL Big Bend area with values of 5-8 ft in the Tampa Bay area. Coastal structures and infrastructure lower than 10ft will be completely destroyed. Storm surge flooding is likely along much of the west coast of FL with the greatest values in the concave areas north of Tampa in the FL Big Bend. Storm surge will extend well inland near and to the east of the landfall location and along coastal rivers and bayous. As confidence continues to increase some of the values may need to be increased above 15 ft.
A large wind field of tropical storm and hurricane force winds is likely with this system. Significant wind damage is likely to extend well inland along the track of the hurricane resulting in widespread and extended power outages, downed trees, and structural damage. Damaging hurricane force winds will be possible in both the Tampa Bay and Tallahassee metro areas and tropical storm conditions may extend inland toward metro Atlanta…a very large area is going to experience significant wind impacts.
Probability of sustained tropical storm force winds
Forecasted worst case peak storm surge based on current forecast track
