Red Flag Warning has been issued for today for all areas west of I-45.
A significant and potentially historic wildfire outbreak is forecasted across a large portion of Texas today
SE TX:
Overnight data continues to suggest extreme wildfire conditions will develop across much of the state of Texas today in association with a powerful storm system currently over the central plains. Overnight trends have come in drier for this afternoon locally which has required the expansion of the critical fire weather threat further eastward into a larger portion of SE TX. While morning rainfall will complicate the fire weather forecast locally for this afternoon, the expectation of 35-45mph winds and humidity values falling to less than 30% overtop of dead fuel loads will increase the risk of wind driven wildfire. Fuel loads become increasingly critical the further west and this area will also suffer a longer period of strong, dry, and warm winds which will help to evaporate morning rainfall and moisture. Highest fire threat will be west of the Brazos River, but we will likely reach Red Flag criteria as far east as the I-45 corridor.
W TX/Hill Country/I-35 corridor:
Little has changed overnight with near exceptional fire weather parameters likely to quickly develop by mid to late morning as a front sweeps across this area. Winds are already gusting to 46mph at Llano behind the front and a mid level jet will carve into the area from mid morning to late afternoon supporting damaging wind speeds of 40-60mph. Complicating factor has been the southward extension of a thin line of thunderstorms this morning that may help to wet fine fuel loads over this region….however by afternoon humidity values of less than 10% amid powerful surface winds will support extreme fire danger conditions across long term drought strickened areas where larger fuels have been primed to burn. There remains the high threat for multiple initial fire starts in rapid succession that will quickly overwhelm ground resources and when combined with rapid spread potential…any fire will likely become uncontrollable in only minutes. Calculated burn rates with these conditions suggest forward progression of 3-6 miles in one hour this afternoon. Limited use of air attack resources being pre-staged into the area due to critical wind thresholds being met or exceeded.
Lastly a large plume of dust is forecasted to be lofted out of west Texas and northeast Mexico today and spread eastward across a large portion of the state. Reductions in visibilities along with hazy conditions will spread across a large portion of the state into the evening hours.
