A tropical wave located 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has a low (20%) chance of development over the next 7 days. While shower and thunderstorm activity has slightly increased with this feature over the last 24 hours, there is generally a short window for any additional development before conditions become increasing hostile as this wave nears the Lesser Antilles islands. A large mass of sinking dry air is noted to the north of the tropical wave and as the wave moves westward increasing upper level wind shear along with increasing low level easterly trade winds will create unfavorable conditions for development into the Caribbean Sea.
Northern Gulf:
Similar to last week and 93L a trough axis will emerge off the southeast US coast early this week and this move westward across Florida and into the Gulf mid to late week. Guidance is generally showing little development with this trough/weakness as it moves westward although a large area of tropical moisture is likely to accompany this feature. At this time it appears heavy rains will return to the southern US Gulf states form Florida to Louisiana late week into next weekend. Some of this moisture may be able to work west into southeast Texas, but sinking air from high pressure aloft may hinder widespread development of showers and thunderstorms. Similar to last week a sharp gradient in rainfall will be possible with wetter conditions to the east and drier to the west.
