- Stretch of active weather for the area through much of this week.
- While severe thunderstorm chances are low they are not zero.
- Heavy rainfall possible each day.
Mid level high pressure that brought the hot and dry conditions since last Friday has shifted southwest deeper into Mexico allowing a northwest flow aloft to develop over a large portion of Texas. Such a pattern this time of year is notorious for large complexes of thunderstorms arriving periodically into the area from the northwest as disturbances pass through in the prevailing flow.
One such disturbance and its associated decaying thunderstorm complex is currently moving across the area this morning. These storms have greatly weakened from their peak overnight over northern Texas with the current activity showing some gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. This activity will gradually weaken and shift toward the coast through the morning hours with a lull through the late morning and early to mid afternoon. Some higher resolution guidance show thunderstorms redeveloping late this afternoon near the HWY 105 corridor and drifting southward into the evening hours. This may occur depending on how worked over the local air mass becomes this morning.
Attention then turns toward the west and northwest for the next complex of storms to form late this afternoon over far W TX and move toward the region tonight into Tuesday. Guidance shows this activity arriving late morning on Tuesday with a fairly active afternoon for a large part of the area as this complex interacts with the seabreeze front.
Continued active Wednesday and Thursday with maybe an up tick in the heavy rainfall potential as storm motions may come down some and a slow moving weather system approaches from the west.
Severe Threat:
The severe threat is generally low each day with SPC having the area outlooked in a level 1 out of 5 for the next 3 days. Isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail will be possible, but for the most part storms will remain below severe limits.
Heavy rainfall potential does look to increase through the week, but totals for the most part appear manageable. Heaviest corridor of rainfall will likely be across north and north-central Texas with totals across out area in the 1-3 inch range with the highest totals to the north and northwest. Some of the storms could put down 1-2 inches of rain in an hour which may lead to brief street flooding.
