Freeze Watch in effect for tonight into Wednesday morning for Montgomery, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Washington, Burleson, Brazos, Madison, Houston, and Trinity Counties. All or portions of this area will likely be upgraded to a freeze warning later today.
Strong cold front is progressing off the coast this morning with much colder and drier air filtering into the area. Cold surface high pressure builds southward into TX today with the center of the high heading for the Big Bend area. This will produce a corridor of locally strong gusty winds across portions of central and SE TX this afternoon into the early evening hours with winds of 25-35mph and locally higher gusts, especially west of I-45 and along the coast. Gale conditions are likely over the coastal waters and bays this afternoon as the cold air moves across the warmer nearshore waters with frequent wind gusts over 40mph. Winds will come down fairly quickly this evening and with clearing skies temperatures will fall rapidly toward low dewpoints in the upper 20’s and low 30’s over much of the region. Areas in the freeze watch can expect a light freeze with lows from 29-32 degrees. Winds stay up closer to the coast later into the evening which will likely prevent these areas (south of I-10) falling to freezing and the urban heat island will keep much of the metro area in the mid to upper 30’s. Would not be surprised if a few isolated spots in northwest Harris, Waller, Colorado, and Austin Counties fell near 32 for an hour or so, but this should not be widespread.
Cold air mass remains into place into Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but the center of the cold surface high starts to move just east of SE TX after Thursday morning…this likely results in temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 30’s for most areas in the midnight to 300am range and then a leveling off of the temperature fall as light easterly winds develop as the high moves east. Would not be surprised for our northeast counties to fall to freezing early in the night (Trinity, Polk, and maybe northern Liberty) along with the typically cold Conroe areas with the cold air drainage in the San Jacinto River basin.
Stronger warm air advection onsets later Thursday into Friday with chances for showers increasing Friday ahead of a weak front that looks to move into the area on Saturday. Temperatures will quickly warm with onshore winds ahead of this front. There remains some question as to how far south this front will move before stalling although most guidance pushing the boundary toward the coast allowing a drier and slightly cooler air mass to filter into the area for Sunday.
