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Flash drought continues to deepen and expand across the state and locally across all of SE TX.

After a very wet late spring and early to mid summer, below average rainfall began to appear in August and September and has greatly intensified in October. In fact, no site in SE TX has recorded rainfall for the month of October which is impressive given October is usually our second wettest month behind May. Although the recent dryness has been intense…so was the wetness earlier in the year and all climate sites remain well above normal on rainfall for 2024 except for Hobby Airport and Sugarland.

2024 Rainfall thru 10/23 and departures:

College Station: 39.94 +6.83
BUSH IAH: 51.20 +9.09
Hobby: 44.02 -1.50
Galveston: 56.64 +19.32
Conroe: 54.74 +14.51
Sugarland: 40.60 +.04

The last measurable rainfall at BUSH IAH was September 24 (.20 of an inch) and the last rainfall greater than .50 of an inch was recorded on September 6 (.64 of an inch). No climate sites in SE TX have recorded rainfall in the month of October.

October 2024 rainfall and departures:

College Station: 0.00 -3.49
BUSH IAH: 0.00 -3.82
Hobby: 0.00 -4.12
Galveston: 0.00 -3.66
Conroe: 0.00 -3.67
Sugarland: 0.00 -3.29

Fire:
While the recent dryness has been relatively short thus far compared to other dry spells…it has been intense and accompanied by much warmer than normal late summer and early fall temperatures. This has quickly resulted in drought degradation across the entire region and vegetation health quickly declining. The result has been an increase in wildland fire activity in recent weeks especially when drier air masses move over the region along with gusty winds. As the area moves deeper into the fall and winter months more frequent and stronger cold fronts will bring stronger winds and much drier air masses across the area and without any significant wetting rainfall fire weather conditions will quickly elevate. KDBI values which can be used for wildland fire risk show significant values over the area. The scale is from 0 (completely saturated) to 800 (completely void of moisture to 8 inches deep). Values above 650 indicate an increased risk of wildland fire and values over 700 indicate a significant risk. Increasing values indicate larger fuel loads drying…fine fuels (grasses) are readily available to burn and have slightly larger loads due to the wetness in summer resulting in a robust growing period. Larger ladder fuels (brush) are starting to show signs of drought stress and dryness and a few recent fires have noted large fuels (trees…especially juniper and pine) with some burn spread and crown runs. Additionally, spring and summer storms and Hurricane Beryl downed a significant number of limbs and trees which remain today. These limbs and trees have now dried and are adding to the fuel sources in portions of SE TX into E TX.

Average KBDI Values:

Austin: 735
Brazoria: 630
Brazos: 744
Chambers: 693
Colorado: 705
Fort Bend: 706
Galveston: 620
Grimes: 730
Harris: 727
Liberty: 739
Matagorda: 615
Montgomery: 715
San Jacinto: 717
Walker: 691
Washington: 738
Wharton: 689

Water Supply:
Many SE TX lakes were in flood operations and releasing large flows late this spring including record releases at Lake Livingston which surpassed Harvey. Many of these same water supply lakes are currently now below their conservation pool levels and declining due to the late season heat and lack of rainfall. Water supply concerns are greater in central Texas where rainfall earlier in the year was much less and an ongoing multi-year hydrologic drought continues in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio and westward. While late summer rains helped flows into the highland lakes…Lake Travis remains dangerously low.

Statewide conservation storage is at 71.2% which is down from a peak in late July of 76.6%, however this is higher than the 64.5% at this time last year (10/2023).

Lake level departures (ft) and % of capacity:

Conroe: -1.32 (93.8%)
Houston: -.25 (97.8%)
Livingston: -1.72 (91.9%)
Somerville: -1.89 (86.4%)
Texana: -2.83 (82.8%)
Travis: -41.90 (45.0%)

Statewide Storage and Trend:

Long Range Forecast:
With the formation of La Nina in the eastern Pacific late this summer…warm and dry conditions are becoming increasingly likely over Texas and the southern plains into our fall and winter months. There remains some debate exactly how strong the current La Nina episode will become with better chances of a weak to possibly moderate La Nina than a strong La Nina. Such global oscillations tend to support southern plains drought and the developing La Nina likely has some fingerprint on the current dryness over Texas. Below normal rainfall is likely through early 2025 along with above normal temperatures. This will continue to worsen ongoing drought conditions with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicating drought development or persistence across all of Texas into early 2025. There are some indications that at least a slight chance of rainfall will be possible around Halloween into the first week of November…but guidance has been generally underwhelming on amounts thus far.

It should be noted that while La Nina winters tend to be mild with above average temperatures, short but significant cold air intrusions into the southern plains can occur in such patterns.