Catastrophic hurricane impacts imminent for Florida.
Widespread damage and extended loss of basic services will result in prolonged human suffering…some areas will be uninhabitable for weeks to months.
Discussion:
Milton regained category 5 intensity yesterday afternoon with the completion of the eyewall replacement cycle…the surface pressure fell to 907mb and winds increased to 160mph. In the last few hours…both NOAA and USAF missions have found a double wind maximum in Milton indicating the hurricane is starting another eyewall replacement cycle…the surface pressure has increased to 916mb and the eye has filled and clouded over on IR images. Additionally, the cloud pattern is starting to look a bit east weighted indicating wind shear is imparting on the hurricane from the west. It is likely Milton has peaked and steady weakening that has been forecasted up to landfall in now in progress…a combination of a well timed eyewall replacement cycle and increasingly unfavorable upper level conditions. IR Satellite Loop for Hurricane MILTON | Tropical Tidbits
While Milton will weaken…the wind field is expanding and will continue to expand through landfall…even with weakening the catastrophic storm surge is already there with this hurricane and similar events (Katrina, Rita, Opal) all produced historic storm surge events even though the hurricane peaked over the open Gulf of Mexico well prior to landfall.
Track/Intensity:
The track forecast has shifted very little over the last 24 hours, but the exact track of the eye will make a large difference in where the maximum storm surge occurs. A track just north or into Tampa Bay will result in a catastrophic storm surge into metro Tampa with damage numbers that would likely rival hurricane Katrina. A track just south of Tampa Bay would spare the metro area the maximum surge and focus the surge further down the coast toward Sarasota and Fort Myers. Generally , Milton has been tracking just southeast of both the NHC forecast points and the multi-model consensus and this may support a landfall just south of Tampa Bay near Sarasota. However, the northern eyewall of strong winds would still move across the metro Tampa area.
Minton will weaken some on approach to landfall…how much exactly remains to be seen…but the current forecast calls for a 130mph category 4 landfall. The landfall intensity is not overly important since the storm surge is already baked into the fabric of this hurricane. The expanding wind field and accelerating forward speed will bring hurricane conditions across FL into the Orlando area and then exit off the FL east coast around Cape Canaveral.
Impacts:
Storm Surge:
A large area of the west coast of FL will experience a storm surge event that has not happened in most of these locations in over 100 years. Values of 8-15 ft are likely near and south of where the center crosses the coast (Sarasota, Siesta Key, Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers) and possibly into Tampa Bay and the metro Tampa area should the track be just slightly northward. The barrier islands will be completely overtopped with likely heavy erosion forming several cuts through the terrain…structures will be collapsed and washed away…little will survive along the immediate coast. Even well built multi-story structures may become undermined to the point of total failure. Coastal critical services and infrastructure will be destroyed (roads, bridges, power, communication, water, and sewer). These areas will be uninhabitable for weeks to months.
Wind:
A large area of damaging hurricane conditions will move across the state of FL impacting large population areas. It is likely the northern eyewall will contain the strongest winds as it interacts with a trough to the north while dry air undercuts the southern side of the hurricane eroding into the southern eyewall. Model guidance has been showing this for the last few days which brings the strongest winds along and north of the center track. Widespread wind damage is likely across the entire state of FL with both Tampa and Orlando likely experienced significant wind impacts with widespread power loss for an extended period of time.
Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches will be likely along and north of the track of the center…similar to the wind…the northern eyewall is likely to be enhanced by the interaction with a trough to the north which will focus excessive rainfall in the northern eyewall while dry air erodes the southern side of the hurricane. Given the saturated conditions already in place from Helene and wet conditions since…these rainfall amounts will produce significant inland freshwater flooding. Much of the rain is going to fall in a 6-10 hour window as Milton crosses the state.