Western Caribbean Sea
An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico late this week. While there is ensemble support from the GFS and ECWMF guidance, this support has been slowly weakening in the number of members that show development and also the intensity of anything that forms. Generally the upper air conditions will likely not be as favorable as last week with Helene with large amounts of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico that may become entrained into the system along with increasing upper level shear. Forecasted steering flow supports a track toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the northeast or east-northeast toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
This system continues to pose little threat to Texas.
TD 12:
Tropical depression 12 has formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic…expected to become a large and powerful hurricane this week.
Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has developed a well defined low level circulation and deep convection near the center and is now a tropical depression. It is likely the system is nearing tropical storm intensity this morning. TD 12 will move west over the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest later this week into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This track will keep the system over the open waters of the Atlantic with no threat to any landmasses. Conditions are favorable along the forecasted track of TD 12 for significant intensification with much of the guidance suite making this system a major hurricane in 4-5 days.

TD 12 forecast track