High chance of a tropical system to form in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week and threaten the US Gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased some in association with an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea and slow organization is likely to continue eventually leading to the formation of surface low pressure. Major model guidance and their ensemble members have come into increasing agreement with the formation of a surface low by the middle of this week near the Yucatan with a movement generally to the north into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico around the western side of high pressure near or east of Florida. As the system lifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week a large upper level low over the mid south or southern plains will help to draw the tropical system north or northeast toward the US Gulf coast. While no surface circulation has formed yet, the agreement with the various model guidance is fairly high which yields decent confidence in the overall track evolution. The exact formation of the surface low may make some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast. Current thinking is areas from New Orleans to Tampa are at the highest risk and that will likely narrow some in the coming days.
Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which are capable of moving lots amounts of water in the Gulf of Mexico so elevated tides will be possible even well away from the landfall of this system when combined with the higher than usual fall lunar tides.
Persons and interest along the US Gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane kits stocked and plans ready.
